The dollar has risen about 15 percent since its low of June 2011, allowing Americans to enjoy lower prices for imported goods, and helping keep inflation in check. It can also lead to lower commodity prices, allowing Americans to pay less for energy and food.
But it has made exports more expensive, reducing U.S. manufacturers’ competitive advantage abroad. As domestic manufacturers reduce expenses, that can lead to job losses and restrain economic growth. And it can hurt stock prices of U.S. companies that do business abroad, as sales of their products in weakening currencies fetch fewer dollars.
“Many U.S. Treasury secretaries, administration officials and financial pundits have touted a strong dollar policy, but the impacts of such a policy are a mixed bag,” said Bob Hughes, lead author of Business Conditions Monthly, an AIER report which provides an outlook for the U.S. economy, and a read on inflationary pressures. This month’s edition, which focuses on the impact of the rising dollar, suggests a slightly weaker economy than last month, but forecasts continued growth in the quarters ahead, as well as subdued inflationary pressures.
In addition to the impact on the economy and inflationary pressures, the report highlights the strong dollar’s potential impacts and risks for investors in global fixed income markets and commodities, as well as U.S. equities and global equities.
Hughes said the dollar is likely to head even higher, as this country’s economy gains strength, and U.S. interest rates begin to rise while foreign central banks ease their own monetary policies. Consequently, investors may still have time to review their portfolios and make appropriate adjustments to mitigate the risks from a stronger dollar, Hughes said. To read the full report, visit aier.org.
